Copper's Flirting With Support Watch The Stock Market

The stock market is sauntering toward its third straight weekly win, but the public servants in Washington just might help usher it to a loss by day’s end.

The Senate is flirting with delivering a partial government shutdown around midnight, as it kicks up a fuss about a one-month spending bill passed by the House yesterday. Democratic Senators have signaled they will filibuster today, plus at least two Republican senators oppose the bill.

“A government shutdown, even a brief one, could reintroduce investors to the fact that markets go down as well,” says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, for our

call of the day. He’s worried about next week.

“Any government shutdown that persisted into the work week would breed plenty of the type of uncertainty that can rattle investors’ confidence,” McBride tells NBC News. But pundits also are warning long-term investors against knee-jerk reactions to anything that happens in DC.

Historically, shutdowns have not been major occasions for selling, notes a MarketWatch article. The Credit Suisse charts below (h/t Daily Shot) suggest that as well.

Can you spot the shutdown selloffs?

Traders on Twitter are even mocking yesterday’s “huge selloff in stocks” (the S&P plunged 0.2%) that was blamed on shutdown concerns.

“When the market wants to correct, it can latch on to a reason of its choice,” tweets TJM broker Jim Iuorio.

In other words, this Teflon market simply may need a breather after posting a positive total return in every single month last year.

Read more: Here’s what would happen if the government shuts down

Key market gauges

Shutdown fears aren’t weighing that much at last check, with futures for the Dow YMH8, >+0.45%  , S&P 500 ESH8, >+0.59% and Nasdaq-100 NQH8, >+0.54% all higher. The Dow DJIA, >+0.21%  , S&P SPX, >+0.44% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, >+0.55% are up between 0.4% and 0.8% for the week as of yesterday’s close.

The dollar DXY, >+0.21% is paring a loss attributed to shutdown worries, as gold GCG8, >+0.29%  gains. Asian markets mostly brushed off the squabbling among America’s swamp creatures, and European stocks SXXP, >+0.54% are advancing. Oil  CLG8, >-0.59% is falling, while bitcoin BTCUSD, >-13.10% is around $11,800.

See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

The chart

10-Year Treasury Yield closes at its highest level in 40 months: 2.61%.

REITs close at their lowest level in 10 months.$TNX $VNQ pic.twitter.com/TEfFY4UGQR

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 19, 2018

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, >+0.00% has topped 2.6%, touching levels last seen more than three years ago. That has whacked real-estate stocks, a rate-sensitive bunch.

The chart above from Charlie Bilello at Pension Partners shows the damage to the Vanguard REIT ETF VNQ, >+0.54%  , the big dog among such real-estate funds with $33 billion in investor money.

Read more: Why REITs may be worth a look in 2018

The quote
MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images
SEC to bitcoin ETFs: No thanks!

“We do not believe that it is appropriate for fund sponsors to initiate registration of funds that intend to invest substantially in cryptocurrency and related products.”— Securities and Exchange Commission official Dalia Blass has put the kibosh for now on bitcoin ETFs and the like.

She has penned a letter with a lot of questions that must be “addressed satisfactorily” before such funds get the green light. Fund sponsors have been asked to withdraw their registration statements for crypto-related products, Blass notes.

Read more: SEC shoots down idea of bitcoin ETFs

The buzz

Biotech Acorda ACOR, >+8.80% is jumping premarket on takeover buzz, while Square SQ, >+5.69% and Chipotle CMG, >+1.88% are getting lifts from upgrades.

The parent company for those Hudson News stores in airports has set terms for its IPO.

IBM IBM, >-3.99% and AmEx AXP, >-1.83% are trading lower premarket after their earnings late yesterday.

In terms of economic news, the Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic was due to speak before the open, consumer sentiment hits once trading is underway, and Fed official Randall Quarles steps into the spotlight around lunchtime.

Check out: MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar

Speaking of the Fed, the San Francisco Fed’s John Williams might get the No. 2 job there.

Why has #ReleaseTheMemo become a thing? Republican lawmakers say a memo shown to an intelligence committee has material that tops Watergate.

In other political news, President Trump is slated to give the strongest showing of White House support ever to an annual anti-abortion protest, as his new federal office offering “conscience protections” to doctors also generates controversy.

Becoming the site for Amazon’s AMZN, >+0.10% HQ2 would have a relatively big impact on Raleigh, Indy and Columbus, and access to big airports looks like a factor in the company’s decision process.

The stat

394 sessions — That is how long the S&P 500 has gone without a 5% drawdown, tying for the longest such stretch in the index’s history, according to Goldman Sachs.

So the benchmark appears on track to set a new record on this count today, a MarketWatch article notes.

Random reads

Drone rescues two swimmers in Australia. It’s heralded as a world-first.

Tom Brady’s hand looks set to appear before reporters today.

Scientists are getting closer to a blood test to detect cancer.

TV crew arrested for trying to sneak a fake bomb into Newark’s airport.

Putin takes a dip in an icy lake to mark Orthodox Epiphany.

Which recent Goldman takeover flopped? The White House one.

Cops in Canada show they have a sense of humor:

Man fools officers with car made of snow, gets fake parking ticket https://t.co/wU4sO6nyLO #10TV pic.twitter.com/5Wms4Vjkg5

— 10TV.com (@10TV) January 19, 2018

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Source : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-government-shutdown-could-reintroduce-investors-to-the-fact-that-markets-go-down-2018-01-19

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