2017 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers





After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters

Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (675 PA, 5.4 zWAR) won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award with ease in 2016. Were a similar award to exist for second-year players, Seager would be the favorite to win that, as well. ZiPS calls for Seager to record less gaudy BABIP and fielding numbers in 2017, but that’s to be expected. At the most basic level, a projection system is a regression machine. BABIP and fielding runs require large samples before they begin to represent true talent. As a second-year player, Seager lacks that kind of sample by definition.

Here’s some other news, though: ZiPS also projects a nearly three-point improvement in Seager’s strikeout rate, from 19.4% this past season to 16.7% in 2017. This does not appear to be a product of regression to the mean. It can’t really: the lowest strikeout rate National League batters have produced over the last three seasons is 19.9%. Szymborski’s computer, in other words, appears to be calling for actual improvement. Or perhaps a different sort of regression — regression to Seager’s 2015 numbers, when he made more contact in the minors and (for a brief stretch) majors. In any case, two propositions are true: both (a) Corey Seager is very good and (b) this section, which is intended to provide a brief overview of all the club’s starting field players, has failed to do that.

Pitchers

The only thing wrong with Clayton Kershaw‘s (177.0 IP, 5.9 zWAR) 2016 campaign was there wasn’t enough of it. After averaging 222 innings per season between 2013 and -15, Kershaw recorded only two-thirds of that total this past year. Prorated to 222 innings, Kershaw’s ZiPS projection comes to about 7.5 wins. He understandably receives a more modest innings projection than usual, however.

Here’s who else receives a modest innings projection among Dodgers pitchers: almost all of them. Rich Hill (95.0, 2.0), Brandon McCarthy (88.0, 0.8), and Hyun-Jin Ryu (90.1, 1.0) all earn promising per-inning forecasts. None of that triumvirate is projected to record more than 100 innings, though. Julio Urias (136.1, 2.2), meanwhile, is already expected to produce an above-average season as a 20-year-old.

The back end of the Dodgers bullpen remains a source of strength for the club — in part, certainly, due to the return of Kenley Jansen (62.0, 1.5). He and Grant Dayton (68.0, 1.0) represent one of the top relief duos outside of Chicago and Cleveland.

Bench/Prospects

Even as Los Angeles has possessed the means to sign the league’s most expensive free agents, they’ve made a priority of acquiring depth. That’s reflected in the projections. Consider: both Austin Barnes (441 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Chris Taylor (492, 2.1) profile as league-average players, and yet neither appears to have a path to a starting role. Not at the beginning of 2017, at least. Meanwhile, rookie-eligible prospects Cody Bellinger (514, 1.7), Willie Calhoun (505, 1.4), and Alex Verdugo (570, 1.4) all profile as very strong bench players already.

As noted above, the Dodgers feature a number of fragile starters who, if healthy, could be of some benefit to the club. They also employ some young starters who, if called upon, could do the same. Neither Jose De Leon (111.0, 1.5) nor Alex Wood (123.1, 1.1) appear to have a certain role for 2017, but both are assets. Right-hander Trevor Oaks (138.1, 0.8) likely only has a future as an “up-and-down arm” according to Eric Longenhagen, but it appears as though that future is now.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

dodgers-blue-depth-image>

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Corey Seager L 23 SS 675 89 174 41 5 22 99 5 1
Justin Turner R 32 3B 461 56 115 27 2 15 64 4 1
Joc Pederson L 25 CF 540 69 104 21 1 24 68 10 5
Yasmani Grandal B 28 C 406 46 79 15 1 19 62 1 1
Yasiel Puig R 26 RF 541 70 134 25 5 19 74 7 6
Austin Barnes R 27 C 441 50 97 19 3 9 45 9 2
Adrian Gonzalez L 35 1B 577 66 140 28 0 21 94 0 1
Chris Taylor R 26 SS 492 58 114 25 6 5 44 14 5
Trayce Thompson R 26 CF 442 53 92 21 4 17 54 8 3
Cody Bellinger L 21 1B 514 69 107 20 2 26 78 6 2
Rob Segedin R 28 3B 408 51 91 18 4 15 56 2 2
Andrew Toles L 25 CF 425 47 104 24 5 6 43 21 10
Willie Calhoun L 22 2B 505 62 121 25 1 17 66 0 0
Alex Verdugo L 21 CF 570 64 139 27 2 15 67 6 6
Chase Utley L 38 2B 457 56 97 21 3 10 46 2 1
Scott Van Slyke R 30 LF 221 23 49 11 0 7 25 3 2
Zach Walters B 27 1B 447 49 97 23 4 21 62 1 1
Tim Locastro R 24 2B 562 63 129 22 4 7 50 20 9
Edwin Rios L 23 3B 482 61 112 23 3 16 78 2 1
Johan Mieses R 21 CF 490 56 96 25 3 17 67 5 7
Kiké Hernandez R 25 2B 370 40 80 15 2 9 34 3 2
O’Koyea Dickson R 27 LF 445 55 104 25 2 17 62 2 3
Kyle Farmer R 26 C 368 36 77 21 3 4 37 3 2
Andre Ethier L 35 LF 257 25 59 12 3 5 30 1 1
Jack Murphy B 29 C 248 21 47 9 0 3 19 0 0
Charlie Culberson R 28 SS 262 23 55 12 2 5 26 4 3
Corey Brown L 31 CF 422 48 82 17 3 17 55 7 3
Brandon Hicks R 31 SS 290 28 48 10 1 8 27 3 2
Tyler Holt?!? R 28 CF 376 37 78 12 3 1 23 13 4
Drew Maggi R 28 SS 400 38 80 15 1 3 27 15 9
Carl Crawford L 35 LF 222 28 54 9 3 4 26 7 3
Darin Ruf R 30 1B 404 49 88 17 1 17 56 1 1
Bobby Wilson R 34 C 235 20 47 7 0 4 25 0 1
Lars Anderson L 29 1B 355 36 72 18 0 7 36 2 1
Micah Johnson L 26 2B 516 55 113 20 4 7 43 21 10
Yusniel Diaz R 20 CF 414 44 88 10 6 11 50 5 10
Rico Noel R 28 CF 241 23 46 8 2 0 15 18 6
Will Venable L 34 CF 366 41 77 13 2 8 37 8 3
Darnell Sweeney B 26 2B 536 55 107 22 5 11 52 14 11
Alex Hassan R 29 LF 357 34 76 15 1 3 27 1 0
Matt Beaty L 24 1B 477 49 109 21 1 8 48 3 2
Henry Ramos B 25 RF 336 28 72 13 3 6 28 4 4
Jacob Scavuzzo R 23 LF 492 55 110 23 3 12 51 4 4
Erick Mejia B 22 SS 458 44 98 13 6 3 34 15 9
Stetson Allie R 26 RF 450 48 78 17 1 17 51 3 3
Josmar Cordero R 25 1B 320 30 68 15 1 6 31 4 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Corey Seager 675 6.2% 16.7% .188 .308 .280 .327 .468 .338
Justin Turner 461 7.6% 17.4% .184 .310 .278 .343 .462 .346
Joc Pederson 540 13.9% 29.8% .208 .293 .228 .342 .436 .340
Yasmani Grandal 406 14.0% 25.9% .215 .269 .230 .340 .445 .340
Yasiel Puig 541 8.1% 20.9% .189 .322 .275 .344 .464 .352
Austin Barnes 441 8.4% 16.8% .131 .278 .244 .314 .375 .307
Adrian Gonzalez 577 8.5% 18.0% .175 .298 .270 .333 .445 .326
Chris Taylor 492 7.1% 21.3% .116 .319 .253 .310 .369 .304
Trayce Thompson 442 6.8% 27.8% .197 .279 .226 .281 .423 .307
Cody Bellinger 514 8.9% 30.5% .220 .286 .232 .302 .452 .323
Rob Segedin 408 6.9% 23.3% .192 .289 .247 .309 .439 .323
Andrew Toles 425 3.8% 22.1% .129 .322 .259 .292 .388 .310
Willie Calhoun 505 6.1% 14.9% .167 .275 .260 .308 .427 .313
Alex Verdugo 570 5.1% 16.5% .142 .289 .260 .300 .402 .305
Chase Utley 457 6.6% 19.3% .138 .273 .234 .298 .372 .291
Scott Van Slyke 221 8.6% 24.9% .163 .309 .250 .326 .413 .325
Zach Walters 447 4.7% 28.6% .224 .278 .232 .271 .456 .306
Tim Locastro 562 3.7% 15.1% .100 .286 .250 .305 .350 .301
Edwin Rios 482 3.9% 29.9% .168 .321 .246 .280 .414 .297
Johan Mieses 490 5.1% 33.9% .180 .287 .211 .260 .391 .285
Kiké Hernandez 370 7.3% 20.0% .136 .276 .237 .295 .373 .292
O’Koyea Dickson 445 4.9% 19.1% .195 .278 .254 .300 .449 .320
Kyle Farmer 368 4.6% 19.3% .113 .268 .224 .266 .337 .264
Andre Ethier 257 8.6% 18.3% .143 .300 .257 .327 .400 .311
Jack Murphy 248 8.1% 25.8% .080 .277 .209 .272 .289 .249
Charlie Culberson 262 3.8% 25.6% .125 .282 .222 .257 .347 .265
Corey Brown 422 5.9% 36.0% .188 .288 .209 .257 .397 .283
Brandon Hicks 290 8.3% 39.0% .138 .286 .184 .260 .322 .259
Tyler Holt?!? 376 8.2% 21.5% .063 .301 .232 .299 .295 .274
Drew Maggi 400 6.0% 21.8% .072 .281 .220 .281 .292 .269
Carl Crawford 222 4.5% 15.8% .129 .292 .260 .297 .389 .308
Darin Ruf 404 5.9% 24.3% .190 .274 .238 .292 .428 .308
Bobby Wilson 235 5.5% 23.4% .088 .272 .219 .264 .307 .249
Lars Anderson 355 9.6% 22.8% .123 .280 .226 .301 .349 .286
Micah Johnson 516 5.6% 21.9% .103 .296 .237 .283 .340 .285
Yusniel Diaz 414 6.0% 26.1% .143 .286 .227 .275 .370 .291
Rico Noel 241 6.2% 26.6% .055 .299 .212 .274 .267 .263
Will Venable 366 6.8% 23.5% .122 .285 .230 .288 .352 .281
Darnell Sweeney 536 7.1% 28.0% .133 .290 .219 .276 .352 .284
Alex Hassan 357 7.8% 23.5% .080 .304 .235 .297 .315 .272
Matt Beaty 477 5.2% 17.0% .106 .281 .245 .288 .351 .279
Henry Ramos 336 5.1% 22.6% .120 .286 .232 .274 .352 .273
Jacob Scavuzzo 492 4.7% 25.4% .141 .301 .239 .283 .380 .291
Erick Mejia 458 5.2% 23.1% .080 .296 .228 .270 .308 .267
Stetson Allie 450 8.2% 39.1% .172 .282 .193 .263 .365 .275
Josmar Cordero 320 3.4% 25.9% .116 .290 .225 .263 .341 .267

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Corey Seager 675 5.8 121 1 5.4 Cal Ripken
Justin Turner 461 6.0 124 4 3.8 Joe Torre
Joc Pederson 540 5.2 118 0 3.5 Adam Dunn
Yasmani Grandal 406 5.3 119 -1 3.3 Mickey Tettleton
Yasiel Puig 541 5.8 125 3 3.2 Ron Swoboda
Austin Barnes 441 4.3 93 -2 2.2 Al Lopez
Adrian Gonzalez 577 5.4 117 4 2.1 Pedro Guerrero
Chris Taylor 492 4.2 91 2 2.1 Antonio Perez
Trayce Thompson 442 4.2 95 3 1.9 Rickey Cradle
Cody Bellinger 514 4.8 109 4 1.7 John Jaha
Rob Segedin 408 4.8 108 -3 1.7 Bob Bailey
Andrew Toles 425 4.2 90 3 1.5 Steve Carter
Willie Calhoun 505 4.8 104 -8 1.4 Taylor Green
Alex Verdugo 570 4.3 96 -3 1.4 Andre Ethier
Chase Utley 457 3.9 88 0 1.1 Ray Durham
Scott Van Slyke 221 4.8 107 2 0.9 Benny Agbayani
Zach Walters 447 4.3 100 3 0.8 Chad Rupp
Tim Locastro 562 3.9 84 -4 0.8 Damion Easley
Edwin Rios 482 4.2 93 -6 0.7 Roy Howell
Johan Mieses 490 3.3 80 1 0.6 Steve Gibralter
Kiké Hernandez 370 3.9 87 -3 0.5 Enrico Washington
O’Koyea Dickson 445 4.8 107 -7 0.5 Mike Cervenak
Kyle Farmer 368 3.1 69 -2 0.4 Brian Peterson
Andre Ethier 257 4.7 104 -2 0.4 Tommy McCraw
Jack Murphy 248 2.7 59 2 0.4 Joe Hietpas
Charlie Culberson 262 3.0 68 2 0.3 Frank Kremblas
Corey Brown 422 3.5 81 -3 0.3 Ruben Rivera
Brandon Hicks 290 2.7 63 2 0.2 Sean Mcnally
Tyler Holt?!? 376 3.3 69 0 0.2 Jamal Strong
Drew Maggi 400 2.8 62 1 0.1 Drew Meyer
Carl Crawford 222 4.3 92 -1 0.1 Milt Thompson
Darin Ruf 404 4.4 100 -3 0.1 Julio Zuleta
Bobby Wilson 235 2.7 61 0 0.1 Frank Charles
Lars Anderson 355 3.7 83 3 0.1 Ray Giannelli
Micah Johnson 516 3.4 75 -3 0.1 Tommy Shields
Yusniel Diaz 414 3.2 80 -2 0.1 Jackson Melian
Rico Noel 241 2.8 54 2 -0.1 Damon Mashore
Will Venable 366 3.6 80 -7 -0.3 Jalal Leach
Darnell Sweeney 536 3.2 76 -6 -0.3 Manuel Francois
Alex Hassan 357 3.3 73 0 -0.3 Russ Morman
Matt Beaty 477 3.6 79 3 -0.4 Mike Ashman
Henry Ramos 336 3.3 72 0 -0.5 Layne Lambert
Jacob Scavuzzo 492 3.7 85 -6 -0.6 Mike Diaz
Erick Mejia 458 2.8 63 -6 -0.7 John Stevenson
Stetson Allie 450 3.1 75 -2 -0.7 Danny Peoples
Josmar Cordero 320 3.1 69 0 -0.9 Brett Hayes

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Clayton Kershaw L 29 26 26 177.0 219 27 15 134 48 45
Kenta Maeda R 29 29 29 177.7 170 45 19 162 73 68
Julio Urias L 20 24 24 136.3 135 44 14 126 58 54
Rich Hill L 37 17 17 95.0 104 35 10 78 36 34
Scott Kazmir L 33 25 25 142.7 133 44 19 134 67 63
Kenley Jansen R 29 65 0 62.0 95 13 6 41 16 15
Jose De Leon R 24 22 22 111.0 133 31 18 97 50 47
Alex Wood L 26 24 20 123.3 104 37 15 121 60 56
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 30 17 17 90.3 73 20 10 92 43 40
Grant Dayton L 29 53 0 68.0 90 19 8 53 24 22
Brandon McCarthy R 33 15 15 88.0 63 21 12 92 43 40
Trevor Oaks R 24 24 24 138.3 87 25 18 149 72 67
Joe Blanton R 36 56 0 70.0 73 20 8 60 27 25
Adam Liberatore L 30 58 0 50.7 57 17 5 42 20 19
Brock Stewart R 25 25 18 105.0 96 30 17 105 56 52
Pedro Baez R 29 64 0 64.0 69 18 8 55 27 25
Chris Hatcher R 32 57 0 52.3 57 15 6 46 21 20
Josh Fields R 31 58 0 59.0 72 20 5 50 25 23
Carlos Frias R 27 22 14 91.7 63 24 10 95 48 45
Brett Anderson L 29 15 14 79.0 53 21 10 85 42 39
Chase De Jong R 23 25 25 132.3 116 44 21 131 73 68
Josh Sborz R 23 27 20 116.3 99 40 18 117 63 59
J.P. Howell L 34 60 0 45.0 39 16 4 43 19 18
Vidal Nuno L 29 63 0 71.7 66 17 11 69 32 30
Luis Avilan L 27 66 0 61.3 57 21 8 57 28 26
Ross Stripling R 27 23 18 101.7 77 32 14 105 57 53
Yimi Garcia R 26 42 0 45.7 49 11 8 42 21 20
Joe Broussard R 26 40 1 68.0 59 20 9 67 33 31
Bud Norris R 32 28 21 126.3 106 43 19 128 72 67
Jacob Rhame R 24 53 0 61.0 68 24 8 54 30 28
Josh Ravin R 29 23 0 26.0 32 12 5 22 14 13
Alfredo Figaro R 32 22 11 76.0 48 25 11 83 44 41
Chin-hui Tsao R 36 24 0 27.3 26 10 4 27 15 14
Brandon Beachy R 30 6 6 24.0 17 12 4 25 16 15
Steve Geltz R 29 57 0 59.0 61 25 10 52 31 29
Ralston Cash R 25 46 0 60.7 64 34 8 55 32 30
Edward Paredes L 30 46 0 38.7 38 25 5 36 22 21
Wilmer Font R 27 26 5 50.3 41 19 8 52 31 29
Sam LeCure R 33 43 5 72.3 55 25 11 75 42 39
Madison Younginer R 26 46 0 66.3 54 29 8 66 36 34
Patrick Schuster L 26 54 0 52.0 44 27 5 50 30 28
Gus Schlosser R 28 30 5 61.7 44 25 10 66 39 36
Fabio Castillo R 28 34 13 104.0 79 51 16 109 67 63
Alex Burgos L 26 29 1 48.0 35 29 9 53 34 32
Andrew Thurman R 25 23 18 87.3 63 52 24 104 77 72

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Clayton Kershaw 177.0 692 31.6% 3.9% .278 2.29 2.31 58 56
Kenta Maeda 177.7 740 23.0% 6.1% .288 3.44 3.52 87 86
Julio Urias 136.3 579 23.3% 7.6% .295 3.56 3.64 90 89
Rich Hill 95.0 398 26.1% 8.8% .280 3.22 3.66 81 90
Scott Kazmir 142.7 606 21.9% 7.3% .285 3.97 4.08 100 100
Kenley Jansen 62.0 240 39.6% 5.4% .280 2.18 1.96 55 48
Jose De Leon 111.0 461 28.9% 6.7% .290 3.81 3.90 96 95
Alex Wood 123.3 528 19.7% 7.0% .288 4.09 4.03 103 99
Hyun-Jin Ryu 90.3 383 19.1% 5.2% .295 3.99 3.67 101 90
Grant Dayton 68.0 276 32.6% 6.9% .290 2.91 3.00 73 73
Brandon McCarthy 88.0 377 16.7% 5.6% .290 4.09 4.38 103 107
Trevor Oaks 138.3 589 14.8% 4.2% .290 4.36 4.31 110 106
Joe Blanton 70.0 290 25.2% 6.9% .278 3.21 3.36 81 82
Adam Liberatore 50.7 211 27.0% 8.1% .284 3.37 3.17 85 77
Brock Stewart 105.0 450 21.3% 6.7% .291 4.46 4.46 113 109
Pedro Baez 64.0 265 26.0% 6.8% .280 3.52 3.55 89 87
Chris Hatcher 52.3 218 26.2% 6.9% .290 3.44 3.36 87 82
Josh Fields 59.0 247 29.1% 8.1% .304 3.51 2.86 89 70
Carlos Frias 91.7 394 16.0% 6.1% .290 4.42 4.11 112 101
Brett Anderson 79.0 343 15.5% 6.1% .291 4.44 4.29 112 105
Chase De Jong 132.3 572 20.3% 7.7% .287 4.62 4.65 117 114
Josh Sborz 116.3 506 19.6% 7.9% .290 4.56 4.71 115 115
J.P. Howell 45.0 194 20.1% 8.2% .293 3.60 3.74 91 92
Vidal Nuno 71.7 301 21.9% 5.6% .284 3.77 4.14 95 101
Luis Avilan 61.3 262 21.8% 8.0% .283 3.82 3.95 96 97
Ross Stripling 101.7 442 17.4% 7.2% .289 4.69 4.46 118 109
Yimi Garcia 45.7 190 25.8% 5.8% .283 3.94 4.17 99 102
Joe Broussard 68.0 291 20.3% 6.9% .291 4.10 4.19 103 102
Bud Norris 126.3 550 19.3% 7.8% .292 4.77 4.60 120 113
Jacob Rhame 61.0 261 26.1% 9.2% .291 4.13 3.89 104 95
Josh Ravin 26.0 112 28.6% 10.7% .274 4.50 4.73 114 116
Alfredo Figaro 76.0 336 14.3% 7.4% .290 4.86 4.95 123 121
Chin-hui Tsao 27.3 119 21.9% 8.4% .295 4.61 4.29 116 105
Brandon Beachy 24.0 109 15.6% 11.0% .280 5.62 5.44 142 133
Steve Geltz 59.0 254 24.0% 9.8% .271 4.42 4.70 112 115
Ralston Cash 60.7 271 23.6% 12.5% .290 4.45 4.57 112 112
Edward Paredes 38.7 177 21.5% 14.1% .289 4.89 5.00 123 122
Wilmer Font 50.3 222 18.5% 8.6% .292 5.19 4.94 131 121
Sam LeCure 72.3 317 17.4% 7.9% .287 4.85 4.76 122 117
Madison Younginer 66.3 294 18.4% 9.9% .292 4.61 4.62 116 113
Patrick Schuster 52.0 233 18.9% 11.6% .292 4.85 4.42 122 108
Gus Schlosser 61.7 276 15.9% 9.1% .289 5.25 5.23 132 128
Fabio Castillo 104.0 472 16.7% 10.8% .291 5.45 5.28 138 129
Alex Burgos 48.0 226 15.5% 12.8% .293 6.00 6.10 151 149
Andrew Thurman 87.3 418 15.1% 12.4% .293 7.42 7.28 187 178

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw 177.0 11.14 1.37 0.76 166 5.9 Sandy Koufax
Kenta Maeda 177.7 8.61 2.28 0.96 110 3.2 Brad Penny
Julio Urias 136.3 8.91 2.91 0.92 106 2.2 Danny Jackson
Rich Hill 95.0 9.85 3.32 0.95 118 2.0 Chuck Finley
Scott Kazmir 142.7 8.39 2.78 1.20 95 1.6 Kenny Rogers
Kenley Jansen 62.0 13.79 1.89 0.87 174 1.5 John Wetteland
Jose De Leon 111.0 10.78 2.51 1.46 99 1.5 Melido Perez
Alex Wood 123.3 7.59 2.70 1.09 93 1.1 Dave Otto
Hyun-Jin Ryu 90.3 7.28 1.99 1.00 95 1.0 Odalis Perez
Grant Dayton 68.0 11.91 2.51 1.06 130 1.0 Arthur Rhodes
Brandon McCarthy 88.0 6.44 2.15 1.23 93 0.8 Jason Johnson
Trevor Oaks 138.3 5.66 1.63 1.17 87 0.8 Dave Geeve
Joe Blanton 70.0 9.39 2.57 1.03 118 0.7 Salomon Torres
Adam Liberatore 50.7 10.12 3.02 0.89 112 0.4 Mike Munoz
Brock Stewart 105.0 8.23 2.57 1.46 85 0.4 Julio Valera
Pedro Baez 64.0 9.70 2.53 1.13 108 0.4 Joel Peralta
Chris Hatcher 52.3 9.81 2.58 1.03 110 0.4 Cliff Politte
Josh Fields 59.0 10.98 3.05 0.76 108 0.4 Mike MacDougal
Carlos Frias 91.7 6.18 2.36 0.98 86 0.4 Ray Bare
Brett Anderson 79.0 6.04 2.39 1.14 85 0.4 Wade Blasingame
Chase De Jong 132.3 7.89 2.99 1.43 82 0.3 Dan Smith
Josh Sborz 116.3 7.66 3.10 1.39 83 0.3 Greg McMichael
J.P. Howell 45.0 7.80 3.20 0.80 105 0.2 Ray King
Vidal Nuno 71.7 8.28 2.13 1.38 101 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez
Luis Avilan 61.3 8.37 3.08 1.17 99 0.1 Ray Beasley
Ross Stripling 101.7 6.81 2.83 1.24 81 0.1 Brian Allard
Yimi Garcia 45.7 9.65 2.17 1.58 96 0.0 Kevin Crafton
Joe Broussard 68.0 7.81 2.65 1.19 92 0.0 Don Stanford
Bud Norris 126.3 7.55 3.06 1.35 79 0.0 Andy Hawkins
Jacob Rhame 61.0 10.03 3.54 1.18 92 -0.1 Justin Hedrick
Josh Ravin 26.0 11.08 4.15 1.73 84 -0.2 Steve Sparks
Alfredo Figaro 76.0 5.68 2.96 1.30 78 -0.2 Jose Santiago
Chin-hui Tsao 27.3 8.57 3.30 1.32 82 -0.2 Ben Weber
Brandon Beachy 24.0 6.38 4.50 1.50 67 -0.3 Carlos Chantres
Steve Geltz 59.0 9.31 3.81 1.53 86 -0.3 John Briscoe
Ralston Cash 60.7 9.49 5.04 1.19 85 -0.4 Joe Valentine
Edward Paredes 38.7 8.84 5.81 1.16 78 -0.5 Mike Kinnunen
Wilmer Font 50.3 7.34 3.40 1.43 73 -0.5 Ivan Maldonado
Sam LeCure 72.3 6.85 3.11 1.37 78 -0.5 Brandon Puffer
Madison Younginer 66.3 7.33 3.94 1.09 82 -0.6 Sean Green
Patrick Schuster 52.0 7.62 4.67 0.87 78 -0.6 Dean Brueggemann
Gus Schlosser 61.7 6.42 3.65 1.46 72 -0.7 Ivan Maldonado
Fabio Castillo 104.0 6.84 4.41 1.38 70 -1.2 Daven Bond
Alex Burgos 48.0 6.56 5.44 1.69 63 -1.2 Randy Phillips
Andrew Thurman 87.3 6.49 5.36 2.47 51 -3.1 Kerry Burchett

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

Source : http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/

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